robinhood-options-mobile

Unified AI Conviction & Factor Alignment Engine

The Unified AI Conviction & Factor Alignment Engine synthesizes multi-factor quantitative models, options flow dynamics, and adversarial stress tests into a single, institutional-grade conviction score ($0 - 100$). It stream lines complex, disparate signals into clear trade conviction tiers with full transparency into underlying factor pillars.

---

1. Architectural Overview

flowchart TD
    subgraph Quantitative Inputs
        TF[19 Technical Indicators & Moving Averages]
        OF[Options Flow Sentiment & Net GEX Tilt]
        FD[Alpha Factor Model & IC Weightings]
    end

    subgraph Adversarial Check
        DA[Devil's Advocate Stress Test]
        ST[Skew Traps & Event Hazards]
    end

    subgraph Synthesis Engine
        FE[Factor Alignment Service - Deterministic 0-100]
        PEN[Adversarial Hazard Penalty Haircut]
        LLM[Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite Reasoning & Synthesis]
    end

    subgraph Presentation & Defense
        UCR[Unified Conviction Rating 0-100]
        RADAR[5-Pillar Factor Alignment Matrix]
        UI1[Instrument Research Sliver]
        UI2[Order Ticket 1-Tap Pre-Trade Guard]
    end

    TF --> FE
    OF --> FE
    FD --> FE
    DA --> PEN
    ST --> PEN
    FE --> LLM
    PEN --> LLM
    LLM --> UCR
    UCR --> RADAR
    RADAR --> UI1
    RADAR --> UI2

---

2. Core Factor Pillars

The engine analyzes 5 core quantitative and behavioral pillars:

Pillar	Key Indicators & Inputs	Weight	Description
Trend & Moving Avgs	SMA (10, 20, 50, 200), EMA, Price Action, ADX	$25\%$	Multi-timeframe trend alignment and directional strength.
Momentum & Oscillators	RSI, MACD, Stochastic, CCI	$25\%$	Velocity and acceleration across short- and intermediate-term cycles.
Volatility & Squeeze	Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, ATR	$15\%$	Volatility contraction/expansion and breakout probability.
Options Flow & GEX	Institutional sweep urgency, Net Gamma ratio, Gamma Flip distance	$20\%$	Market maker structural hedging pressure and smart money positioning.
Adversarial Resilience	Devil’s Advocate score, Skew Traps, Event Hazards	$15\%$	Downside skew and upcoming event vulnerability assessment.

---

3. Adversarial Stress Penalty Haircut

Rather than relying purely on momentum or positive trend confirmation, the engine incorporates an explicit Adversarial Stress Penalty:

\[\text{Stress Penalty} = \min\left(30, (5 \times N_{\text{high\_hazards}}) + (4 \times N_{\text{high\_skew\_traps}}) + \max(0, (50 - \text{Resilience}) \times 0.4)\right)\] \[\text{Final Conviction} = \max\left(5, \min\left(99, \text{Raw Composite} - \text{Stress Penalty}\right)\right)\]

Conviction Tiers

• Very High ($\ge 80$): Strong multi-pillar alignment with minimal adversarial downside risk. Standard position sizing.
• High ($65 - 79$): Clear directional bias with manageable downside risks.
• Moderate ($48 - 64$): Mixed indicator signals or moderate hazard penalties. Staggered entries recommended.
• Low ($35 - 47$): Weak technical or quantitative foundation.
• Conflicted ($< 35$): Severe indicator divergences or high-severity event hazards (e.g., imminent earnings with inverted volatility skew).

---

4. Backend Cloud Function (generateUnifiedConviction)

The Cloud Function (functions/src/gemini.ts) coordinates Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite synthesis with 24-hour Firestore caching:

• Authentication: Mandatory request.auth verification (unauthenticated on missing auth).
• Validation: Strict validation of symbol (alphanumeric, 1-10 characters), direction (Bullish | Bearish), and positive finite currentPrice.
• Caching: Stored in ai_conviction/{symbol}_{direction} to optimize latency and token consumption.
• Model Fallback: Primary gemini-3.1-flash-lite, automatically falling back to gemini-2.5-flash-lite on transient API errors.

---

5. UI Integration & Accessibility

1. Research Tab (InstrumentWidget): Embedded in _buildResearchSlivers alongside Devil’s Advocate and Price Targets.
2. Order Tickets (TradeInstrumentWidget & TradeOptionWidget): 1-tap pre-trade conviction check before order execution to avoid entering trades into severe skew traps or conflicted regimes.
3. Screen Reader Semantics: Consolidated announcement detailing the symbol, direction, conviction score, tier, stress haircut, and actionable guidance.